NATO/EU Enlargement and the Confrontation with Russia

Russia has traditionally been a conservative power throughout its history. It has no natural geographical defenses on its frontiers, and the country stretches across eleven time zones. Russia has historically adapted to this vulnerability by acquiring buffer territories to provide even greater strategic depth for their defense. This vulnerability has led to numerous invasions by great powers in the past. The Tatars, Napoleon, Charles XII and Hitler all did their worst to the Russians. This history shapes the Russian soul to be defensive and paranoid about potential danger on its borders. Russia never experienced the Renaissance, Reformation and the Enlightenment. This has caused Russia to become more culturally distant from the West since the 17th century.

In the West, there was a growing dislike of the naked tyranny of the Czars since the Enlightenment, and even before. The totalitarianism of the East was viewed as a grave threat to the commercial empires of the West. When Russia is strong, it is a terrible enemy to face. This is why in the post-WWII era an entire defensive military alliance was created to face down the singular power of Moscow.

Another part of the conflict is the different sources of power that the antagonists draw upon. Russia controls the Central Asian Heartland, and is the predominant land power on the Earth. America and its European satellites are the predominant commercial sea powers of the Earth. This asymmetry leads both factions to take extreme measures to counter the predominant strength of the enemy. The amalgamated financial power of the banking elite in the West controls the commanding heights of the world economy. All nations on the periphery of this control system are beholden to it, and do not participate in the global economy on an equal basis. Russia knows this, and views the advance of the European economic bloc with fear. They are determined not to be brought into the New World Order of NATO and the EU as a subservient client state of the financial powers. After the South Ossetia war, the orders were given by the money masters to attack Russian markets as punishment for its victory in the Caucasus. The Moscow stock market was imploded on command. To counter this form of strength, Russia is investing in its traditional mode of foreign policy: pure force.

Globalism vs. Realism

The problem of perception is almost insurmountable. Russia interacts with the world on the basis of a sort of realism mixed with opportunism. They only seek objectives that they can guarantee with force. NATO and the EU are pursuing policies that only post-modern nihilistic powers would consider. The expansion of the blocs to countries that are not suitable members causes alarm and confusion in Russia, because it does not make any kind of strategic sense unless the goal is to surround and isolate Russia. The inclusion of the Visegrad Four (Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic and Slovakia) was reasonable, and made sense to the Russians and was not viewed as being too threatening. These states were traditionally western, and had not been part of the Russian sphere of influence except for during the Cold War.

The problem in the eyes of Russia is the expansion into old Bessarabia (Balkans and South-East Europe), and former Ottoman territories that have Slavic and orthodox peoples living there. Russia views itself as the guardian of Christendom and feels a paternal responsibility towards the Slavic Christians in this area and has traditionally held great influence there. Seeing these groups pulled into the Economic and Military blocs of the West has piqued the paranoid nerves of the Russian elite. This is not normal Realistic behavior on the part of NATO and the EU.

The problem for NATO and the EU is that for every action they take, threatening or not in their eyes, Russia responds with force and blackmail. They don’t realize that this is just the product of the asymmetry that exists between the West and Russia. Russia cannot fight the West in terms of propaganda or economics, so all they can rely on is force and the resources they directly control in order to enforce their will. The inability to accept that Russia is motivated by nationalism is crippling the policy and planning of the NATO and EU bloc. It is not reasonable to expect to be able to build military bases right up to Russia’s borders and have no response from them. All overtures that the western bloc makes to Russia are interpreted as attempts to ensnare them into the bottomless monetary pit of the Anglo-American Banking Empire.

The issue of deterrence has become the key to this confrontation. Russia has recognized the weakness being introduced into NATO by bringing in these tiny Eastern European states, and even more absurdly Georgia all the way in the Caucasus. The United States is not actually willing to fight Russia directly over these meager “allies”, and Russia has been convinced of that for decades. The demonstration of punishing Georgia was to destroy the enthusiasm of the tiny Eastern NATO members to thumb their noses at Russia, and to get revenge for the theft of Kosovo from Serbia.

Mitigating Factors and Confidence Building Measures

NATO has included Russia as an observer in order to address some of the Russian fears about NATO expansion and out of area actions. The NATO-Russia Council was founded in 2002 and allows Russia to hear the discussions and to have their opinions immediately heard by the NATO members. The creation of this mechanism has decreased tension somewhat because there is less of a question about whether either side understands what the other is doing or what the other wants. This is a mitigating factor in the perception problem between the West and Russia. The importance of this should not be over played though. As time goes on Russia sees that even though they have a voice in the NATO structure and their opinions are known, they have no value.

Since the EU is an economic and political entity, communication with Russia is easier. There are Russian Ambassadors in all of the EU states. The EU and Russia entered into a Partnership and Co-operation Agreement in 1994 shortly after the creation of the EU. This agreement normalized economic policy between the EU and Russia and allowed for expanded trade and cooperation. In late 2008 the EU and Russia began new negotiations at a summit about a new agreement that is yet to take shape. Russia will act to exploit the cracks between EU economic needs, and the military demands of the trans-Atlantic alliance. This gap is closing, and to the Russians this is more evidence of hostile unified purpose.

Conclusions

NATO and the EU are on a collision course with Russia. This conflict is not about whether Russia is “good”, or if there is “democracy” in Russia. This is about the grand schemes of the global banking elite that are using the United States and NATO as a weapon to enforce their program around the world. The actions of NATO and the EU are not within the bounds of realism, and invoke all sorts of fears in Russia. Some of these are justified and some are not. If the western blocs are not acting rationally in the context of history, the logical thing for the Russians to believe is that they are in danger. The real way for the West and Russia to de-escalate the burgeoning conflict is for the West to leave Central Asia and the Caucasus. Our presence there is unnatural, and very expensive to maintain. Returning to a rational spheres of influence system of international relations would give confidence and security to all the parties involved. The human energy of the great powers could then be devoted to progress and development rather than destruction and oligarchy.